Overview of Current Conditions: Updated 07 December W hat comes next? Find out with GWO's 2-year prediction - most accurate prediction available. Current Conditions - Overview.

Tropical South Pacific Surface and Subsurface. Tropical South Pacific Subsurface ocean temperatures.

Updated 16 November Graphics - Current Conditions and Analysis. Click Image to Enlarge. It shows sea surface height anomalies, or how much the water stood above or below its normal sea level.

Shades of red indicate where the ocean was higher because warmer water expands to fill more volume thermal expansion.

Shades of blue show where sea level and temperatures were lower than average water contraction. Normal sea-level conditions appear in white. As you watch sea surface heights change through , note the pulses of warmer water moving east across the ocean.

When the trade winds ease and bursts of wind come out of the west, warm water from the western Pacific pulses east in vast, deep waves Kelvin waves that even out sea level a bit.

As the warm water piles up in the east, it deepens the warm surface layer, lowering the thermocline and suppressing the natural upwelling that usually keeps waters cooler along the Pacific coasts of the Americas.

Look back at the underwater temperature animation to see this phenomenon. In the eastern Pacific, the surge of warm water deepens the thermocline, the thin layer that separates surface waters from deep-ocean waters.

This thicker layer of warm water at the surface curtails the usual upwelling of cooler, nutrient-rich water—the water that usually supports rich fisheries in the region.

This loss of the nutrient supply is evident in declining concentrations of sea surface chlorophyll, the green pigment present in most phytoplankton.

Changes in water properties such as oxygen and carbon content also affect marine life. Chlorophyll concentrations rise and fall with the presence of phytoplankton.

The images above compare sea surface chlorophyll in the Pacific Ocean as observed in October and Shades of green indicate more chlorophyll and blooming phytoplankton.

Shades of blue indicate less chlorophyll and less phytoplankton. For a larger view of these maps, click here. Historic observations have shown that with less phytoplankton available, the fish that feed upon plankton—and the bigger fish that feed on the little ones—have a greatly reduced food supply.

Arrows show how the primary wind direction changed from January to January The change in wind speed is represented by colors, with surface wind speeds increasing in teal-green areas and decreasing in purple areas.

These wind shifts allowed pulses of warm water to slosh from Asia toward the Americas over the course of This reflects intense convection, where warm surface waters promote intense evaporation and rising air.

See the Walker circulation illustration on page 1. Consequently, new air masses move toward the equator to replace the rising air.

Other changes occurred well away from the equator; scientists refer to these as teleconnections. For instance, RapidScat detected a strong clockwise-rotating anti-cyclonic wind anomaly in the northeastern Pacific that may have been the result of stronger-than-normal atmospheric circulation Hadley cell.

That is, air that rose above the super-heated waters of the central tropical Pacific sank back to the surface at higher latitudes with more than usual intensity.

As the warm ocean surface warms the atmosphere above it, moisture-rich air rises and develops into rain clouds.

The data show how often and how much the sky was filled with clouds over a particular region. Cloudiness is a result of moisture rising from the ocean surface into the atmosphere.

Those clouds can lead to more rain, but they also shade the water by day and trap heat near the surface at night.

For centuries, Peruvian fishermen reaped a bounty off the Pacific coast of South America, where north- and west-flowing currents pulled cool, nutrient-rich water from the deep.

But every so often, the currents would stop or turn around; warm water from the tropics would drive the fish away and leave the nets empty. These periodic warm spells were most noticeable around December or January—around the time of Christmas, the birth of "the boy child.

The chemical signatures of warmer seas and increased rainfall have been detected in coral samples and in other paleoclimate indicators since the last Ice Age.

This pattern of water and wind changes has been going on for tens of thousands of years. When Francisco Pizarro first sailed from Panama along the west coast of South America in , his progress was slowed and ultimately stopped by persistent south and southeasterly winds—which follow the pattern of the north-flowing coastal currents.

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